The Canadian Compass: Charting a Path Though Geopolitical Chaos

It is a time tested principle of international relations that if one nation issues an ultimatum to another that they must accept "unconditional surrender", it only steels the resolve of the country threatened with the ultimatum - especially before a shot is fired. To suggest such an outcome in the current environment in the Middle-East is not only a strategic error, it is the height of diplomatic stupidity. It is also a clear and frightening indication of the impulsive ignorance of a so-called world leader. Herein lies the rub: the President of the United States is suffering badly in the polls. Even if he contemplates that his pre-election promises to end all wars are remembered by the people who elected him, it does not matter to his fragile ego. It is also a sad pattern that when leaders see their popularity plummeting, they are inclined to rattle their sabers - and worse to use them in a manufactured war. The risk that this could happened has been heightened. The pretext o...

In the geo-political environment that swirls around us there are many metaphorical "snakes in the grass" - venomous, mostly with offensive intent, waiting to strike when the circumstances serve their interest. These snakes lead countries and use whatever resources they can muster to advance those interests, and especially, to retain and exercise the power in their environment. This has been the state of nature in geo-politics throughout history. Modern snakes like Narendra Modi and Benjamin Netanyahu have slightly different modus operandum. Modi lies deep in the grass, moving in subtle ways to strike against the Muslim minority in India and suggesting, but never really effecting, the removal of barriers to trade in his market. Speak to any business about the challenges in accessing the Indian market. Netanyahu on the other hand is more overt. He continues to prosecute a near genocidal and revengeful war well beyond the pretense that propelled Israel into the fray. His persona...

Now that we have our election behind us, albeit with a minority government, we shall see if all the political parties actually work together to tackle the many economic, security and political issues that face our country. The civilized process thus far - a hallmark of our democracy - should demonstrate to the Canadian public, and to the world, that even with our imperfections we can all pull in the same direction to gradually improve our national well-being - in every sense of the word. Canada faces several challenges in the current geo-political landscape.  Each of these challenges will be dealt with in turn.  In my view, the most pressing concern is the threat to our sovereignty. The word "sovereignty" was bandied about hundreds of times during the recent election campaign, and more often than not it was used in reference to threats from Donald Trump to make Canada the 51st state. As much as it became a central election issue, I do no give Trump's vacuous musings much ...

  "Sooner or later we all sit down to a banquet of consequences." Robert Louis Stevenson (Old Mortality 1884) The wise words of Stevenson will undoubtedly be ignored by the current crusaders in and around the White House locus of power. Self-reflection is not in their DNA. The current methods of the Trump administration is remarkably similar to a "blitzkrieg", the German term employed in our relatively recent past by Adolf Hitler. The tactic had also been used by Alexander the Great, among others to achieve success on the battlefield - at least initially. The intent of a blitzkrieg is to execute lightning fast attacks to surprise and overwhelm the enemy - which, in principle, would lead to an equally swift victory. Imbedded in the concept of Blitzkrieg is another applicable principle of warfare called Schwerpunkt  or “centre of gravity”. This principle advanced by the famous historian of warfare, Carl Von Clausewitz, advocated for concentrating effort of attack on ...

While the current administration in the US is ostensibly on the path to make the country great again it is, in fact, devolving into the territory of a Third World country. The Cold War definition of "Third World" which pertained to non-aligned countries has changed to one reflective of modern geo-political and economic circumstances. Modern usage of the term focuses on low levels of economic development, high poverty, low life expectancy, high rates of disease as well as economic and political instability. Often, such conditions also parallel a very small, authoritarian ruling elite with well feathered nests - and a low appreciation for the rule of law. When my family and I lived in Los Angeles County in the late 80's to early 90's what I observed all around us was more like a Second World country, rather than, in an economic sense, a First World country. The "haves" lived in walled and security fenced compounds or in neighbourhoods where every lawn was sta...

Lest my dear readers think that I had some foreknowledge that Trump would do almost exactly what I say he would, namely back down on his tariff threats, I want to assure you that did not have that knowledge; rather my prediction was fueled by cold common sense with a sprinkle of political logic. The reversal happened much quicker than expected. My post went out late morning of April 9 (about 10:30). As far as I can tell, the tariff reversal took place in the late afternoon of April 9. Whatever happens going forward into the next 90 days is still anybody's guess. The markets will still be reactionary - and Trump, though fallible is still unpredictable. Hold on to your hats, we have more nonsense to find our way through in the meantime. In this regard, Canada needs to chart a clear-eyed course, based upon the prescriptions of smarter people than I, to strengthen our economy and society and stand on our own as a middle power in a increasingly dangerous world.

While the modern day Nero golfs, world market's burn, and like the original emperor, he doubles down on his tariff torture for the foreseeable future. Throughout most of Nero's reign, he was associated with unrivalled extravagance, tyranny, debauchery and murder. For the moment, the murdering comes in different forms. Nevertheless, there appears to be a few parallels. The doubling down is also a function of Trump's character. He is a classic narcissist as defined in the following profile: https://www.aplaceofhope.com/what-are-the-five-types-of-narcissism-and-how-do-they-affect-different-types-of-relationships/ All of these characteristics are on display in Trump's current actions toward the rest of the world. Moreover, his overestimation of his competence, compels him to not back down from his terrible decisions (otherwise known as the "Dunning-Kruger Effect"). However, my earlier supposition still holds - and it is now part of his current mantra - that Trump...

With the attention span of a fruit fly Donald Trump flits from one vindictive act to another.  Today it is "Liberation Day", but on brand, we have only a vague idea of what he is supposedly liberating. There will be tariffs on Canadian products, despite the advice of experts (which he ignores) and just because he said so - and his minions are scrambling to make it happen. We will not be alone. Other nations, who have been "ripping off America" according to Trump, will be targeted - but the products to be targeted and tariff level to which they will be subjected is unknown at this moment. As usual, the narrative around the reason for these tariffs is manufactured and without factual basis, but in Trump's dangerously simple mind, it will make America Great Again. It will not make American great again. The story he continues to repeat is that companies will be coming back to America in droves, creating jobs for American workers. This is a pipe dream and has no conn...

We are in the throes of a very important Federal election and, as usual, the parties vying for power are flinging money around by the billion. From infrastructure for mining development, to the defense in the Arctic and higher pay for our armed forces personnel, to building a hundred thousand rent controlled houses, all the parties are making money laden promises of handouts or tax cuts to win our votes.  There is no question that we need investments in many, if not all of the things that are "promised". However, whichever party attains power, it is my opinion that they do not go staggering off spending money like the proverbial drunken sailor. Some progress has been made with respect to our fiscal situation (believe it or not) despite the spending sprees of the previous government. In the environment in which we must now operate, the investments we make will need to be focused and strategic. Rather than try to be all things to all people we must be mindful of the impact on o...

I have commented in the past on Trump's choice of unqualified and reprehensible individuals to head every department of government. The current news from the halls of power in Washington confirms the obvious. The recent scoop by Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic magazine has blown the minds of every individual with an ounce of common sense. I will not repeat it here - the story is everywhere.  https://www.theatlantic.com/ politics/archive/2025/03/ trump-administration- accidentally-texted-me-its- war-plans/682151 What I will comment on, is the comments of others who have the authority and experience to be absolutely gob smacked by the abject carelessness and stupidity of the people around Donald Trump who allowed this to happen. Then when they were questioned and challenged about it, lie and blow it off - arguing that the mission was a success and that they "have learned from their mistake". First, from a newsletter sent to me by a friend and relative in the US, written by...