Snakes in the Grass

In the geo-political environment that swirls around us there are many metaphorical "snakes in the grass" - venomous, mostly with offensive intent, waiting to strike when the circumstances serve their interest. These snakes lead countries and use whatever resources they can muster to advance those interests, and especially, to retain and exercise the power in their environment. This has been the state of nature in geo-politics throughout history.

Modern snakes like Narendra Modi and Benjamin Netanyahu have slightly different modus operandum. Modi lies deep in the grass, moving in subtle ways to strike against the Muslim minority in India and suggesting, but never really effecting, the removal of barriers to trade in his market. Speak to any business about the challenges in accessing the Indian market. Netanyahu on the other hand is more overt. He continues to prosecute a near genocidal and revengeful war well beyond the pretense that propelled Israel into the fray. His personal interest to retain power and avoid corruption proceedings, rests above the hostages in the hands of Hamas and the suffering of the Palestinian people. Witness the continuing and senseless devastation, famine and uncontrolled persecution in Palestine.

There are other minor snakes. However, the most crafty and dangerous that slither at the top of the geo-political hierarchy, are Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and now Donald Trump.

Putin and Jinping are masters of command and control, having consolidated all the power of their country, its institutions and so-called governance, in themselves. They are masters of saying one thing and doing the opposite, supported by a compliant state apparatus. While they may on occasion lie still, most of the time they are moving slowly and methodically to attack a perceived challenge to the command and control they hold and achieve their longer term designs for territorial conquest. They continue to build and strengthen the means to use force when the opportunity presents itself to advance those ends. 

The parallels to Trump are remarkable. His character and slithering style is also overt, and has been discussed in previous postings. The command and control he attempts to exercise within the confines of democracy is simply to ignore and undermine every norm, precedent and law the democratic system of government in which he operates.  Similar to Putin and Xi, he has surrounded himself with sycophants of even lesser intelligence, who offer no challenges, so that he can pursue his narrow agenda of retaining power under the guise of making the country better. Beyond his simple and vague, often fanciful pronouncements, he is an empty vessel, allowing the ideologues around him pour their own dangerous and anti-democratic ideas into his head. It is a modern crusade with all the hallmarks of fascism. The parallels that can be found in history are stark and disturbing. What makes his behaviour more disturbing is its sporadic, irrational and erratic strikes against any and all perceived threats - friend or foe alike. 

Trump's exasperation with Putin's unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine makes a mockery of the claim the war would be over in 24 hours once he became President. The selection of a real-estate developer buddy to be his advocate for peace speaks volumes about the depth of Trump's understanding of how snakes smarter than him operate in geo-politics.

The history of Russian behaviour under Putin that Trump ignores portends a never ending war of attrition. Upon the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 I posted on X that Putin would use the same playbook as he used in Syria and lob bombs and missiles from afar for as long as he could find and fire the ordinance.  The on the ground experience of Volodymyr Lysytsia, a 45-year-old serviceman visiting the capital for rehabilitation, "Putin has made the front lines in eastern Ukraine a wasteland, with nothing there, only scorched earth, everything bombed.” speaks directly to that reality. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-zelensky-accuses-russia-of-playing-for-time-to-be-able-to-continue-war/ 

  • Russian actions in In Moldova: Transnistria, since 1992, in Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia since 2008 and earlier in Ukraine: Crimea and parts of Luhansk Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, since 2014 as well as parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast since 2022 lay bare Putin's intensions. The unacceptable demands Putin has made for peace also clarify his intensions and the relentless pursuit of making Russia great again.

This is not the half of it that pertains to Russian intentions beyond Ukraine.  They have long been known to test cyber intrusions into Western infrastructure. This will continue and it is not for a defensive purpose.

The war in Ukraine has to be taken to Russia. Europe's support and recent allowances for the use of their weapons (as well as the production of their weapons) in Ukraine may have a impact - but it will be a long time before the course of the war will be reversed. It ultimately will take the end of Putin, as well as the additional use of force to turn the tide in Ukraine. Trump and his minions will need to come to grips with the real-politic of this situation.

It is time to stop limited and measured actions against Russia. Sanctions must be increased to the point that they have real effect and cripple Russian ability to wage war. The continued allowances for oil shipments in Russian "ghost ships" needs to be curtailed - completely.

In the meantime, as the US under Trump is distracted, Xi is moving quietly in the grass, investing billions in his military might as well as his capacity for cyber warfare. Xi is also biding his time before he strikes - not only on Taiwan, but in other areas in the South China sea, the Northern Pacific and ultimately the Arctic.

In this geo-political environment, as has been warned in previous postings, Canada cannot fail to improve it's commitments to it's own defense and to the collective defense via NATO. The linking of our commitments to build an industrial base that supplies domestic munitions and equipment is also part of that commitment that must be accelerated, strengthened and supported.

We ignore the geo-political realities and the movement of the snakes within it at our peril and words to change how we operate within this environment must be met with actions.


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