The Canadian Compass: Charting a Path Though Geopolitical Chaos

It happens virtually every time a President of the United States faces declining approval ratings in the midst of a term of office - the need for a war with someone, over some "thing" starts with rhetoric and more often than not ends with military action. In recent memory there was the first Iraq war, then Somalia, followed by Kosovo, the second Iraq war and then Afghanistan. Now, two years into Trump's current term, the prospect of wars is renewed. With the controversy over the release and of the Epstein files in the midst of middle-America's concerns about the cost of living, Trump's approval ratings have been in steady decline.   The Economist, January 19, 2025 As the slide in approval accelerated the "narco-terrorist" strikes began, domestically the deployment of ICE in Democratic cities and States increased, the threats of regime change in Venezuela followed, the kidnapping of Maduro was undertaken, the "locked and loaded" threats  to Iran...

The American President has sent a message to Putin and Xi, namely, international law and the protection of state sovereignty can be ignored if it is deemed in the invader's interest to do so. Trump always speaks out of both sides of his mouth, but in this instance it is crystal clear what he intended and intends to do. Although the situations are not entirely the same, now Putin and Xi have an example with which to manufacture their own claims that violate established international norms. The world is another step closer to a new world war, or at the very least, large regional wars that become even more impossible to contain. In the meantime, both China and Russia use the situation in Venezuela to position themselves on the high ground - a preposterous outcome that Trump could never imagine. As summarized in the Globe and Mail (January 3, 2026) Chinese Foreign Ministry statement. “China is deeply shocked ⁠and strongly condemns the use of force by the U.S. against a sovereign ‌count...

Based upon what we know about the so-called 28 point peace plan for supposedly ending the Russia- Ukraine war, it has all the hallmarks of beautifully wrapped gift for Vladimir Putin.  According to the Atlantic Daily (November 24):  "The  central points of the plan  reflect long-standing Russian demands. The United States would recognize Russian rule over Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk—all of which are part of Ukraine. Russia would, in practice, be allowed to keep territory it has conquered in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In all of these occupation zones, Russian forces have carried out arrests, torture, and mass repression of Ukrainian citizens, and because Russia would not be held accountable for war crimes, they could continue to do so with impunity. Ukraine would withdraw from the part of Donetsk that it still controls—a heavily reinforced and mined territory whose loss would open up central Ukraine to a future attack." If I were Volodymyr Zelensky I would be beside m...

  I have been away from this blog for several weeks, recovering from some surgery, but my observations of what is going on in the world and Canada's place within it, have continued. A recent article in the Globe and Mail ( https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-trump-tariff-trade-canada-changes-29-ways/), (thanks Andy)  has referenced all the ways in which Trump's actions has affected our nation. There is quite a mix of the good and bad in the "29 ways" Trump has changed us - but the bad, which is mostly economic and trade-related, will, eventually shift to the good if we stay the course that the current government has set for Canada going forward. We have been far too reliant on the US - out of convenience and complacency. There is a whole wide world beyond our borders which, with some effort (and a whole lot of assistance that is available from Global Affairs Canada) can use what we have to offer. Resources, energy, agricultural goods as well as a myriad ...

According to a recent CBC article our economic relationship with the United States is undergoing a substantial shift. There has been up to 30% reductions in a variety of means of travel to and from the US, approximately $5 billion in additional costs to American consumers as a direct result of  Trump's tariffs as well as a substantial shift in Canadian consumer's preferences for Canadian products over those made in America - all of which is making a noticeable impact on those firms selling their goods and services Canada.  (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-big-step-back-from-us-data-1.7637651) Most importantly for our GDP, businesses are finally seeking contacts in other markets and making sales, which is now showing up in exports to countries other than the United States. The latter has been a featured recommendation in previous blogs along with an explanation of how to effect that transition. This is the way it should be going forward. Travel may rebound eventual...

While the present geo-political environment spirals rapidly downward, the US administration, once a moderator and mediator of consequence, flounders domestically, mired in a fixation with its extreme politics and internationally, in a contradiction of purpose. The recent assassination of Charlie Kirk is being used to put every person, group and organization to the left of its extremities on the right in its crosshairs. Kirk is a convenient distraction. To his supporters he was a debater and proponent of free thought. To his detractors he was a fascist. By virtue of what he said and how he said it, he was neither. It would be more appropriate to call him an "influencer" with views that lay well to the right of the political spectrum with the subversive intent to convert those with whom he "debated" to his Christian and Republican causes. The preoccupation with his assassination, among other domestic issues, is distracting this scatterbrained US administration from wh...

  In the midst of all the media attention around the meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage, Alaska tomorrow, something very important is missing from the extensive coverage of the meeting of these two individuals. It is apparently not important that Vladimir Putin has been charged by the International Court of Justice for war crimes and could, under normal circumstances, in a normal state of affairs, be arrested and hustled off to prison to await his trial. "On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights, on charges of war crimes connected to the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. While the warrant against Lvova-Belova is significant, this analysis focuses on the implications of the charges against Putin, representing a landmark in the intersection of individual criminal responsibility and head-of-state immun...

The Canadian Government's consideration to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state is a good diplomatic strategy, in the realpolitik sense.  Canada does not have the ability to change the course of the war but it does, in league with other like minded States, alter the Israeli calculus that currently propels it toward full and complete occupation. The total devastation in Palestine is front and centre of virtually every news outlet for all to see and now Israel and their leadership, hijacked by an extreme right insists that more devastation is necessary to bring Hamas to heel. On the periphery, emboldened and weapon laden settlers on the West Bank, gradually encroach on and seize Palestinian land. How in the world are such horrific and unconscionable actions allowed to take place? First, Trump, a convicted criminal, has Benjamin Netanyahu's back. Netanyahu has also been indicted for fraud, breach of trust and bribery. These men are cut from the same cloth.  ( https://en.wikip...

With the summer upon us there are many, many things to do and enjoy rather than observe and comment on the steady stream of nonsense that spew forth from the American administration.  It is wearying, not to mention exasperating. Justice and State Department purges of the principled officials who dared challenge past Trump transgressions continue unabated. For those of us who "remember" history, these moves parallel every authoritarian dictator, past and present. Aside from wearying it is exasperating that almost every clear thinking person with an ounce of morality has folded their cards and retreated to the safety of anonymity. The religious right in the United States seems blind to their own moral hypocrisy in supporting a unrepentant liar, felon and sexual as well as commercial predator.  If any foreign government challenges the simpleton's tariff sledge hammer they are threatened with a bludgeoning from a bigger hammer. There is no challenge that can be met with a rat...

With all the chest pounding and usual White House hyperbole, one would think the world is a safer place. It is not. It is just the opposite. The bombing of Iran by the United States has unleashed a complex set of possible outcomes in a complex and problem ridden part of the world. While it cannot be known at this point in time which outcome or outcomes will result, certain things can be said to be highly probable. There is no question that Iran has been weakened, but it has not been defeated. Nor have the thousands of terrorists lying in wait in every country of the world given up their jihad against the deeply despised great Satan of the West and its little brother in the heart of the Middle East. This very real stateless diaspora has been enlivened and emboldened. Everywhere Americans (and westerners by association) will be looking over their shoulders for the next attack, and more often than not, they will not see it coming. In his brief speech to the nation, Donald Trump thanked Go...