The Canadian Compass: Charting a Path Though Geopolitical Chaos

Every knowledgeable commentator, from a variety of "think tanks" as well as the casual observer is confused by the shifting objectives and questionable strategy  of the war Trump has unleashed upon the world. This has now extended to the so-called ceasefire. Even the stalwart ally, Israel, has indicated that they have been in the dark as to the latter. The "markets" which we are told, has Trump's constant attention (if that is possible for a scatter brain) may just as well rename the exchanges as "Houses of Uncertainty". The gyrations that are to follow in these markets of expectation are about to give a whole new meaning to a house of cards. As I have previously noted, the US military has been outfoxed again by the guerilla like tactics of an adversary - and that adversary has emerged in a better globally powerful position than they were before the war in using the Strait of Hormuz as its key bargaining chip. This choke point is choking the world. The...

One thing Trump has been very good at, is using other people's money to do his "deals" - all in real estate, often leading to bankruptcy. He is now using his tax payer's money to wage his wars on everyone and everything - and he is pushing the country to bankruptcy. Current estimates range for $890 million to 1 Billion per day is spent on waging the war with Iran. And that number is just the current outflow for a war. Then there is the operation of the government. On that account the US has increased it's deficit spending by 6.2% a year over the past 15 years.  According to Eric Fossing Nielsen, and economist formerly from the World Bank and Goldman Sacks, "  As things now stand, a “whopping” 18 per cent of all U.S. federal tax revenue needs to be allocated to the payment of interest on the public debt alone. Without policy action, the interest-to-revenue ratio will increase to 23 to 25 per cent during the next 10 years - and it is likely the US dollar will l...

  The following article appeared recently in the New York Times - and is worth a read. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/opinion/iran-war-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RVA.yADT.k6kpkC7s2hv3&smid=em-share It is articles like this that make me back off my blog commentary. How could I say anything more incisive than what many commentators, far more experienced and intelligent than I, are already saying? But I will say this: when this "war" was unleashed I dubbed it the "Epic Disaster". I have watched all the Desert Furies, Desert Storms and Operation Enduring Freedoms - yada, yada yada. This war will end the same as the others - in that it will not end in Iran for many more months, perhaps years and will continue in many forms over the Middle East, as the region devolves into renewed ancient rivalry. As I have suggested already, China is firming up its plans for Taiwan. As the US depletes its arsenal, China is lying in the grass like the snake that it is and ...

It happens virtually every time a President of the United States faces declining approval ratings in the midst of a term of office - the need for a war with someone, over some "thing" starts with rhetoric and more often than not ends with military action. In recent memory there was the first Iraq war, then Somalia, followed by Kosovo, the second Iraq war and then Afghanistan. Now, two years into Trump's current term, the prospect of wars is renewed. With the controversy over the release and of the Epstein files in the midst of middle-America's concerns about the cost of living, Trump's approval ratings have been in steady decline.   The Economist, January 19, 2025 As the slide in approval accelerated the "narco-terrorist" strikes began, domestically the deployment of ICE in Democratic cities and States increased, the threats of regime change in Venezuela followed, the kidnapping of Maduro was undertaken, the "locked and loaded" threats  to Iran...

The American President has sent a message to Putin and Xi, namely, international law and the protection of state sovereignty can be ignored if it is deemed in the invader's interest to do so. Trump always speaks out of both sides of his mouth, but in this instance it is crystal clear what he intended and intends to do. Although the situations are not entirely the same, now Putin and Xi have an example with which to manufacture their own claims that violate established international norms. The world is another step closer to a new world war, or at the very least, large regional wars that become even more impossible to contain. In the meantime, both China and Russia use the situation in Venezuela to position themselves on the high ground - a preposterous outcome that Trump could never imagine. As summarized in the Globe and Mail (January 3, 2026) Chinese Foreign Ministry statement. “China is deeply shocked ⁠and strongly condemns the use of force by the U.S. against a sovereign ‌count...

Based upon what we know about the so-called 28 point peace plan for supposedly ending the Russia- Ukraine war, it has all the hallmarks of beautifully wrapped gift for Vladimir Putin.  According to the Atlantic Daily (November 24):  "The  central points of the plan  reflect long-standing Russian demands. The United States would recognize Russian rule over Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk—all of which are part of Ukraine. Russia would, in practice, be allowed to keep territory it has conquered in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. In all of these occupation zones, Russian forces have carried out arrests, torture, and mass repression of Ukrainian citizens, and because Russia would not be held accountable for war crimes, they could continue to do so with impunity. Ukraine would withdraw from the part of Donetsk that it still controls—a heavily reinforced and mined territory whose loss would open up central Ukraine to a future attack." If I were Volodymyr Zelensky I would be beside m...

  I have been away from this blog for several weeks, recovering from some surgery, but my observations of what is going on in the world and Canada's place within it, have continued. A recent article in the Globe and Mail ( https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-trump-tariff-trade-canada-changes-29-ways/), (thanks Andy)  has referenced all the ways in which Trump's actions has affected our nation. There is quite a mix of the good and bad in the "29 ways" Trump has changed us - but the bad, which is mostly economic and trade-related, will, eventually shift to the good if we stay the course that the current government has set for Canada going forward. We have been far too reliant on the US - out of convenience and complacency. There is a whole wide world beyond our borders which, with some effort (and a whole lot of assistance that is available from Global Affairs Canada) can use what we have to offer. Resources, energy, agricultural goods as well as a myriad ...

According to a recent CBC article our economic relationship with the United States is undergoing a substantial shift. There has been up to 30% reductions in a variety of means of travel to and from the US, approximately $5 billion in additional costs to American consumers as a direct result of  Trump's tariffs as well as a substantial shift in Canadian consumer's preferences for Canadian products over those made in America - all of which is making a noticeable impact on those firms selling their goods and services Canada.  (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-big-step-back-from-us-data-1.7637651) Most importantly for our GDP, businesses are finally seeking contacts in other markets and making sales, which is now showing up in exports to countries other than the United States. The latter has been a featured recommendation in previous blogs along with an explanation of how to effect that transition. This is the way it should be going forward. Travel may rebound eventual...

While the present geo-political environment spirals rapidly downward, the US administration, once a moderator and mediator of consequence, flounders domestically, mired in a fixation with its extreme politics and internationally, in a contradiction of purpose. The recent assassination of Charlie Kirk is being used to put every person, group and organization to the left of its extremities on the right in its crosshairs. Kirk is a convenient distraction. To his supporters he was a debater and proponent of free thought. To his detractors he was a fascist. By virtue of what he said and how he said it, he was neither. It would be more appropriate to call him an "influencer" with views that lay well to the right of the political spectrum with the subversive intent to convert those with whom he "debated" to his Christian and Republican causes. The preoccupation with his assassination, among other domestic issues, is distracting this scatterbrained US administration from wh...

  In the midst of all the media attention around the meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage, Alaska tomorrow, something very important is missing from the extensive coverage of the meeting of these two individuals. It is apparently not important that Vladimir Putin has been charged by the International Court of Justice for war crimes and could, under normal circumstances, in a normal state of affairs, be arrested and hustled off to prison to await his trial. "On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights, on charges of war crimes connected to the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. While the warrant against Lvova-Belova is significant, this analysis focuses on the implications of the charges against Putin, representing a landmark in the intersection of individual criminal responsibility and head-of-state immun...