As the World Burns

Every knowledgeable commentator, from a variety of "think tanks" as well as the casual observer is confused by the shifting objectives and questionable strategy of the war Trump has unleashed upon the world. This has now extended to the so-called ceasefire. Even the stalwart ally, Israel, has indicated that they have been in the dark as to the latter.

The "markets" which we are told, has Trump's constant attention (if that is possible for a scatter brain) may just as well rename the exchanges as "Houses of Uncertainty". The gyrations that are to follow in these markets of expectation are about to give a whole new meaning to a house of cards.

As I have previously noted, the US military has been outfoxed again by the guerilla like tactics of an adversary - and that adversary has emerged in a better globally powerful position than they were before the war in using the Strait of Hormuz as its key bargaining chip. This choke point is choking the world. They now have the power to further choke their population.

The Strait of Hormuz is a recognized "international strait" under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. This strait connects the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf - two bodies of water also recognized in law as "high seas" - and as an international strait the right of "transit passage" is guaranteed for ships and aircraft. This right cannot be suspended even in times of war. Iran however is not a signatory to the UN Convention and has made a point to stress that since their territorial waters (12 miles) extend into the Strait, they have a right to maintain "innocent" passage through the Strait under the current circumstances. Oman's territorial waters (again at 12 mines) by the way, butts up against the waters of Iran.

In international law there is "de jure" (legal mandated in law) and de facto (what is in force in fact or practice) and given these circumstances, Iran maintains de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz.

While this is not to say Iranian actions are legitimate, it is, as we say, what it is - and the United States did not factor that into its calculations. Consequently, it now faces the fact that despite its relentless bombing campaign, it is without the means to regain control of the strait without more drastic and politically unacceptable actions.

Like many of Trump's ill considered rants he did not contemplate the implications of his recent threats. The most impactful of which was the prospect of committing crimes against humanity - another international law that he and his advisors were forced to consider. The ceasefire, among other things, resulted from more level headed people finally impressing upon him what he would face if he undertook his claim to decimate Iran's entire civilization.

The new TACO deadline, in part, allows his military and minions some time to try to figure out what to do next. Sending Vance, his son-in-law and real-estate developer friend, aside from being under qualified, to work out a solution is essentially a page from a Putin playbook: stall for time in the meantime. And when they finish blaming Iran for breaking the ill-conceived ceasefire that Israel has no intention of adhering to - the war will begin again.

The mixed messaging and strategy shortcomings do not stop here - and are too numerous to mention. However, one additional catastrophic miscalculation is the effect of the war on Ukraine.

Everything the US and Israel are doing also emboldens (and has enriched) Putin and Russia. Europe, including Canada will need to step up its game plans for that conflict to a greater degree, now and for the foreseeable future. As Putin's friend, this does not matter to Trump and Putin is reveling in that reality.

Again, as mentioned in past postings, China has an example to follow as well and is biding its time before it rises up from its lair and strikes Taiwan.

The global order that has been tenuously held together has come apart at the seams.