When Presidential Approval Ratings Fall, Wars Begin

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It happens virtually every time a President of the United States faces declining approval ratings in the midst of a term of office - the need for a war with someone, over some "thing" starts with rhetoric and more often than not ends with military action.

In recent memory there was the first Iraq war, then Somalia, followed by Kosovo, the second Iraq war and then Afghanistan. Now, two years into Trump's current term, the prospect of wars is renewed.

With the controversy over the release and of the Epstein files in the midst of middle-America's concerns about the cost of living, Trump's approval ratings have been in steady decline.

 

The Economist, January 19, 2025

As the slide in approval accelerated the "narco-terrorist" strikes began, domestically the deployment of ICE in Democratic cities and States increased, the threats of regime change in Venezuela followed, the kidnapping of Maduro was undertaken, the "locked and loaded" threats to Iran grew daily, and the incessant pronouncements regarding the purchase or use of military force in Greenland became a Presidential fixation.

All of this is classic Trump - scattered musings and bully statements - to put everyone within his crosshairs off guard and distract the public from what really matters to them.

For Canada, the imminent and concerning situation is that of Greenland with which we share borders and responsibility for security (along with NATO) in the Arctic. Again, we are caught without substantive methods for deterring a ranting and unpredictable ally - not to mention the secretive and subversive threats posed by our enemies under the Arctic ice. At whatever speed we can act to buttress our presence and activities in our northern most territories, we need to do it now, more urgently than ever.

While it is encouraging to see key Arctic interested states and NATO allies finally step up with an increasing presence in Greenland (without Canada, save for a meager NORAD presence at the time of writing) in the short term it only encourages Trump to wave his tariff wand and threaten more trade retaliation.

Consequently there is an immediate need to finally call the bully's bluff. On how many fronts can the self-described "Peace President" commit the American military and especially so against a group of allies? There is an urgent and critical need to go much further to build up a presence in Greenland that will act as a more credible deterrent to the bully. Canada, in particular, needs to get off its rear end and join the current group of states with a more substantive commitment of troops and material.

Of course there are risks to this kind of response for Canada - but if Trump is actually understanding his daily popularity updates, he will see that the majority of Americans do not approve of his intentions for Greenland. Moreover, it is a golden opportunity to finally stand up to the scatterbrained venture that would surely deepen the geo-political chaos and further embolden our adversaries to pursue their own regional designs.

A case in point: while the world, especially Europe is distracted by these unfolding events, Russia is free to increase its war of attrition against Ukraine and Trump's close friend Putin will certainly work these developments to his advantage.


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