Zelensky's Gambit

It appears Volodymyr Zelensky's current strategy has three elements:

1. He has learned that he must show agreement with Donald Trump. To do otherwise simply risks rejection.

2. Securing a sensible agreement with Putin is not possible, which puts Trump and the US in a difficult position and will require, as it has shown, a need for some form of US support. It is now up to the US to achieve a win of some form - and Trump will need that to save face.

3. Ukraine is war weary and the unrelenting attacks from Russia will not stop until he (Zelensky) gives some ground. That ground will include for the time being, the Donbas.

Given the circumstances of the state of the war in Europe I believe Zelensky has come to the conclusion that it is unrealistic to continue to wage a war that achieves a goal to regain Ukrainian territory Russia has seized thus far by whatever force he can muster. Putin has too much invested, in all senses of the word, to yield anything he has gained.  Afterall, Putin has not achieved what he set out to do - the total capitulation of a country he has stated has no reason to exist outside of Russia. The current stalemate, although difficult to swallow, has become a de facto endgame for Ukraine.

If the awakened Europe makes good on it's collective plans for increased defense spending, and the US is satisfied with their long overdue commitment to NATO, there will be a justification for the US to take some other role in Ukraine that acts as a bulwark for further Russian advances (the control of nuclear facilities for example). In effect, this would be a US security guarantee without a security guarantee. Europe would not need to station troops in Ukraine, opting to build their forces up in other NATO countries bordering Russia.

Then, the Zelensky gambit can extend to eventual membership in the European Union - and the sooner that can happen the better.

As long as Putin is alive and in control there is no chance that the nature and purpose of this war will change.  The Russian narrative exists in an alternate reality, like most manufactured lies. Therefore, it is time for Ukraine to cut their losses.

But here is the rub - history has shown us that a subjugated people will always resent the subjugation and eventually, perhaps over many years, rise up and shake off the shackles of tyranny.

Unfortunately, despite lives lost in the name of freedom, wars are a waste. I believe Zelensky has come to this realization. 

In world events there are constant lessons for everyone - and from Canada's perspective there is a similar test of our resolve. Despots do not "go gently into the good night" as Dylan Thomas' beautiful poem declared - and neither should we in an effort to preserve and protect our own democracy and sovereignty and in doing so "rage, rage against the dying of the light".