The Realpolitik of the Present Moment

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It is a time tested principle of international relations that if one nation issues an ultimatum to another that they must accept "unconditional surrender", it only steels the resolve of the country threatened with the ultimatum - especially before a shot is fired. To suggest such an outcome in the current environment in the Middle-East is not only a strategic error, it is the height of diplomatic stupidity. It is also a clear and frightening indication of the impulsive ignorance of a so-called world leader.

Herein lies the rub: the President of the United States is suffering badly in the polls. Even if he contemplates that his pre-election promises to end all wars are remembered by the people who elected him, it does not matter to his fragile ego. It is also a sad pattern that when leaders see their popularity plummeting, they are inclined to rattle their sabers - and worse to use them in a manufactured war. The risk that this could happened has been heightened.

The pretext of support for an Israeli regime that has exceeded all rational responses to the October 8 massacre, is preposterous. The POTUS places himself squarely in same league as Netanyahu, who wages wars (now extended to Iran) in part as a construct to retain his own hold on power and avoid charges of corruption. In this regard, the two of them are also cut from the same cloth. While this can be argued as not the sole reason for these actions - it is certainly part of the thinking of such individuals with clear patterns of behaviour.

To make matters worse, the US cabinet is filled with incompetence in all matters of the State, let alone matters of security and war. The advice that would come from an experienced State Department, Pentagon and National Security apparatus has been compromised by firings and the placement of lap dogs in positions of leadership. Is there anyone in that room who can rein in the momentum toward a catastrophe?

All of these elements do not bode well for the immediate future of geopolitics and security in the Middle East. 

The spillover allows Putin to continue his advance in Ukraine and Xi to buttress his military for more control in the South China Sea and the eventual invasion of Taiwan.

The world has never been this unstable on so many fronts - including during the cold war. It does not necessarily mean that we are on the verge of nuclear war. As the brilliant French theorist of international relations once said: "Atomic weapons become less usable as they become more monstrous" (Raymond Aron, Peace and War: A Theory of International Relations, 1966).  Moreover, the limbo of detente simply allows for more conventional confrontations, until nations are pushed to the brink and one, or both, miscalculate and push the button.

Again, it is all the more important that Canada does not shrink from strengthening its ability to first defend, and second support the security of like minded allies. Our current leadership appears to understand this reality and we need to place our trust in them accordingly.

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