The Canadian Compass: Charting a Path Though Geopolitical Chaos

It happens virtually every time a President of the United States faces declining approval ratings in the midst of a term of office - the need for a war with someone, over some "thing" starts with rhetoric and more often than not ends with military action. In recent memory there was the first Iraq war, then Somalia, followed by Kosovo, the second Iraq war and then Afghanistan. Now, two years into Trump's current term, the prospect of wars is renewed. With the controversy over the release and of the Epstein files in the midst of middle-America's concerns about the cost of living, Trump's approval ratings have been in steady decline.   The Economist, January 19, 2025 As the slide in approval accelerated the "narco-terrorist" strikes began, domestically the deployment of ICE in Democratic cities and States increased, the threats of regime change in Venezuela followed, the kidnapping of Maduro was undertaken, the "locked and loaded" threats  to Iran...

The American President has sent a message to Putin and Xi, namely, international law and the protection of state sovereignty can be ignored if it is deemed in the invader's interest to do so. Trump always speaks out of both sides of his mouth, but in this instance it is crystal clear what he intended and intends to do. Although the situations are not entirely the same, now Putin and Xi have an example with which to manufacture their own claims that violate established international norms. The world is another step closer to a new world war, or at the very least, large regional wars that become even more impossible to contain. In the meantime, both China and Russia use the situation in Venezuela to position themselves on the high ground - a preposterous outcome that Trump could never imagine. As summarized in the Globe and Mail (January 3, 2026) Chinese Foreign Ministry statement. “China is deeply shocked ⁠and strongly condemns the use of force by the U.S. against a sovereign ‌count...