Acknowledging Weakness, Building on Strength

 "There is always enough for the needy, there is never enough for the greedy. No nation is ever ruined by trade. Everything is a trade-off" Benjamin Franklin

As we enter a trade war with our largest trading partner, brought on for spuriously stated reasons that ignore commercial and economic rationale, we are facing an existential threat like no other in our history. 

This is what we know about Donald Trump, a real-estate huckster and one time reality show charlatan .... trade-offs are a foreign concept. Trade offs imply something approaching win-win in most negotiations.  Trump's modus operandi has been "I win, you lose". He is greedy to his core. More demonstrably, if thinks he has something to negotiate and he smells a weakness, he will bully you into a corner until you eat your loses and make a deal.

Consequently, with respect to his views toward Canada, if we can identify them, he sees us as weak.  Similar to the words he used to bully Volodymyr Zelensky, we do not have many strong cards to play relative to the things Trump views as powerful.

In several areas of importance, we have weaknesses, but in any strategic assessment in any realm - economics, business, innovation etc.  - we need to acknowledge the weaknesses, address them, and at the same time, act on and build on our strengths. By the way, we have many strengths.

Easily said, but more difficult to activate.  However, given the position in which we now find ourselves, we do not have time for complacency or the hope that the issues we face in our broader relationship with the US will go away. As many commentators have pointed out, we are at an inflection point in our history as a nation and we need to stand up for ourselves, by ourselves, now and in the years ahead. Every policy decision we make going forward requires an assessment of how we can reduce our weaknesses and emphasize our strengths.

In this regard we need to understand a very important truism, whether it is in the school yard or the international arena: that the only thing a bully understands is a bigger bully. Although bullying is not in our nature, in matters where we face the the Bully-in-Chief, we have to play whatever cards we have in our hands that can counter being pushed further into a corner.

That is why in the face of 25% tariffs we will rightly respond with our own tariffs. While no one wins a trade war, responding in this manner will send an important message. Economists on both sides of the border have warned that businesses and consumers in both countries will suffer with job losses and higher costs. There is no doubt that this will happen. Even Wall Street has baked the prospect of a negative economic effect into their market reactions. Trump on the other hand chooses to spin a different narrative, all false, without sound justification, mostly to appeal to his need for retribution in response to his manufactured, alternate, hyperbolic "facts".

Trump was elected in part on a platform that would bring down inflation, create jobs and improve the economy. He pays attention to the stock market (even though it is not the economy - stupid). The economic hit that the US will take in a trade war, to any degree, will not sit well with him.

I will make a bold prediction - namely, that the Trump tariffs will not last long - perhaps as long as six months. This will be enough time for the economic effects to sink in. Then his story will change and he will tell the long tale that he did it to Make American Great again (or something equally vacuous).  Then the "negotiations" will start in earnest. To that end we need to be ready to push back hard.

This is only a start; there will be many more responses to follow.  I think we can be encouraged by the fact that Trump and his band of lackeys have stirred us to start thinking of action, rather than complacency. Even if the tariffs are eventually modified or lifted we need to make fundamental changes over the next decade as to how we operate domestically and internationally. 

I have made a number of general statements in this posting but my intent going forward is to address these generalities, one by one, with specific suggestions that will acknowledge and address our weaknesses as well as move forward on our strengths as a nation.

There will be no quivering in our boots - and to paraphrase an old song, our boots are made for walking (forward) and that's just what we will do.