Spaghetti at the Wall

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As I have said before, the only thing a bully understands is a bigger bully. However, because we have been caught with our pants down, we have to resort to shuffling off to the US, to beg for clemency, with our pants around our ankles. It is not a good look.

In my opinion, the delegation parade to Washington should stop; it is a waste of time. Many politicians and organizations in the US know that Trump's tariffs are bad policy and a flawed method to MAGA. Since no one will challenge him (like in the first administration and then get their pink slip) the current chaos will have to run its course.

The cracks in the policy are beginning to show and you can see this now in the climbing down from tariffs in certain sectors, such as oil and gas. I gave the tariff turmoil 6 months before it started to dissipate. Now I think more changes could be within a shorter time-frame.  The midterm elections are 20 months away. With a compliant Congress Trump is using a "spaghetti at the wall" approach and a flurry of his sharpie, to ram through whatever he can before that advantage changes. It is not working as he may have thought. Inflation is rising, the markets are gyrating and the way that the polls are going at the moment, that Congressional advantage will change, and his lackeys know it.

Backing away from the slipping spaghetti will be difficult however. Trump needs a win out so he can climb down further before the negative economic momentum gains strength. A big win that we could give him would be to back off on our protected dairy market. This is an anachronism of modern trade, but a political quagmire for Canada since Quebec is the dairy capital of Canada. The looming election would make this a non-starter.  Consequently, in the meantime we have little to sacrifice and all we can do is do what we are doing with reciprocal tariffs and threats to turn off the lights.

All of this only strengthens my argument for addressing our economic and security weaknesses ourselves, with tough choices as to where we re-deploy our resources to build on our strengths. This is a more substantive, longer term strategy and my thinking on these matters is still taking form.

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