The Canadian Compass: Charting a Path Though Geopolitical Chaos

We are in the throes of a very important Federal election and, as usual, the parties vying for power are flinging money around by the billion. From infrastructure for mining development, to the defense in the Arctic and higher pay for our armed forces personnel, to building a hundred thousand rent controlled houses, all the parties are making money laden promises of handouts or tax cuts to win our votes.  There is no question that we need investments in many, if not all of the things that are "promised". However, whichever party attains power, it is my opinion that they do not go staggering off spending money like the proverbial drunken sailor. Some progress has been made with respect to our fiscal situation (believe it or not) despite the spending sprees of the previous government. In the environment in which we must now operate, the investments we make will need to be focused and strategic. Rather than try to be all things to all people we must be mindful of the impact on o...

I have commented in the past on Trump's choice of unqualified and reprehensible individuals to head every department of government. The current news from the halls of power in Washington confirms the obvious. The recent scoop by Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic magazine has blown the minds of every individual with an ounce of common sense. I will not repeat it here - the story is everywhere.  https://www.theatlantic.com/ politics/archive/2025/03/ trump-administration- accidentally-texted-me-its- war-plans/682151 What I will comment on, is the comments of others who have the authority and experience to be absolutely gob smacked by the abject carelessness and stupidity of the people around Donald Trump who allowed this to happen. Then when they were questioned and challenged about it, lie and blow it off - arguing that the mission was a success and that they "have learned from their mistake". First, from a newsletter sent to me by a friend and relative in the US, written by...

Where Do We Go From Here?  As we finally move in a more determined manner to eliminate internal trade barriers between provinces – a long overdue development - opportunities for business in other markets beyond the US deserve our immediate attention. We are a trade dependent nation. Trade beyond our border accounts for more than two thirds of our Gross Domestic Product.  In fact, we are the second most trade reliant country among the G7; only Germany ranks higher. There is no question that our economic survival is closely tied to trade. However, our dependency on the US creates a vulnerability that is now clearly in focus. Approximately 75% of our trade (depending on what is counted) is with the United States - for reasons that have already been mentioned in previous posts. Our trade volumes to other nations that follow, pale in comparison to what crosses into our neighbour immediately south. -           The USA accounts f...

Sadly, not a day passes without a new and frightening development in the actions of the US administration, directed by POTUS.   The widening assault on the judicial pillar of power is the most worrying evolution of current events.  The judicial system is the last hope of any reasonable check and balance - and that hope is fading as judges and legal firms retreat from challenges to Executive Orders rather than face sanction by the Criminal in Chief.  https://www.nbcnews.com/ politics/trump-administration/ legal-community-shaken- powerful-law-firm-paul-weiss- trump-rcna197490 Trump appointed officials openly state that they "do not care what a judge says" (Tom Holman "Border Czar") and intend to do the bidding of the administration even if it is against the law. Although Holman is now under fire for making that statement and is backtracking to say - his comment only pertained to the immigration matter before the court - the defiance of judicial orders is a recurri...

It appears Volodymyr Zelensky's current strategy has three elements: 1. He has learned that he must show agreement with Donald Trump. To do otherwise simply risks rejection. 2. Securing a sensible agreement with Putin is not possible, which puts Trump and the US in a difficult position and will require, as it has shown, a need for some form of US support. It is now up to the US to achieve a win of some form - and Trump will need that to save face. 3. Ukraine is war weary and the unrelenting attacks from Russia will not stop until he (Zelensky) gives some ground. That ground will include for the time being, the Donbas. Given the circumstances of the state of the war in Europe I believe Zelensky has come to the conclusion that it is unrealistic to continue to wage a war that achieves a goal to regain Ukrainian territory Russia has seized thus far by whatever force he can muster. Putin has too much invested, in all senses of the word, to yield anything he has gained.  Afterall, Putin ...

When I thought about starting this blog in the midst of the geopolitical turmoil which I observed all around me, magnified by the outrageous actions of the US, I did not want it to be a constant stream of criticism and complaint.  I have long held that it does not take many brains to hang out a shingle that advertises: "Professional Critic". It is more constructive to be a problem solver There will be constructive criticism, and occasional sarcasm where merited.  However, only mouthing criticism was not my sole purpose. I wanted to focus to be on possible solutions to the challenges we face within and without our great country. A recent article in the Globe and Mail has stated how Canadians can deal with our collective anger sums it up very well:  “… while it’s still early in our season of national outrage, students of anger’s history and science would call time out for a team huddle. Our next steps matter, and the definition of this perfect-for-the-moment, call-to-arms d...

In the midst of our deteriorating relationship many commentators have suggested that selling our goods and services to markets other than the US is an attractive option. H owever, based on my experience, it is an understatement to suggest that this option is easier said than done. On the other hand, under certain circumstances, diversification is an option that should be explored. The good news is for businesses willing to make that exploration, there is a plethora of assistance and services available to help with the effort, which I intend to address in due course. Before we consider the possibility and benefits of a trade diversification strategy, it is instructive to consider the reasons why diversification is very difficult for enterprises that may be locked into arrangements in the US market. The list of these reasons is long and somewhat daunting, yet to know and acknowledge what challenges exist, is the first step in overcoming them. What are the export diversification options? ...

While I try to focus my attention on charting a path through the chaos, it is difficult to ignore the levels of chaos which now consume US domestic politics, in addition to the geopolitical calamities swirling around us. If my readers are inclined to try to look the other way from what is happening domestically in the US, I understand completely. But, what is emanating from the White House, the Congress and the judiciary is the most consequential challenge to a once great democracy since Adolf Hitler. This is not an understatement. Trump said his Presidency would be "consequential" - it is just not consequential in a positive sense of the word. Normally we could take some comfort in the fact that Executive Orders from a President's pen do not usually mean that the orders will be enacted. Under the Constitution and the checks and balances contained within it, one branch of government cannot dictate new or alter existing legislation without the support or agreement of the o...

There are different theories as to why Trump is using tariffs as a tool to "Make America Great Again". Some think he is bluffing, others believe his is simply being reckless, without a clear idea of the consequences for the US economy. Still others suggest it is a more ideologically sinister attempt to disrupt the geopolitical order. I believe that there are elements of each of these intentions in the US trade and tariff actions. When I hear US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick complain that Canada is "tone deaf" to why the US is imposing tariffs, and launching our own tariffs in response, like most statements emanating from the White House, I have to retort: "What are you thinking and what did you expect us to do - roll over and wave the white flag?" The result is that we are left to either spend our time parsing intent, or chart a path through the chaos. It is my contention that given Trump's predatory disposition he thinks he can gain advantage by e...

A detailed posting about our trading relationship with the United States and actions we can take going forward is being drafted and will be published shortly

As I have said before, the only thing a bully understands is a bigger bully. However, because we have been caught with our pants down, we have to resort to shuffling off to the US, to beg for clemency, with our pants around our ankles. It is not a good look. In my opinion, the delegation parade to Washington should stop; it is a waste of time. Many politicians and organizations in the US know that Trump's tariffs are bad policy and a flawed method to MAGA. Since no one will challenge him (like in the first administration and then get their pink slip) the current chaos will have to run its course. The cracks in the policy are beginning to show and you can see this now in the climbing down from tariffs in certain sectors, such as oil and gas. I gave the tariff turmoil 6 months before it started to dissipate. Now I think more changes could be within a shorter time-frame.  The midterm elections are 20 months away. With a compliant Congress Trump is using a "spaghetti at the w...

China is the master of duplicity. It is no surprise that many Chinese proverbs deal with the use and practice of duplicity. This practice is at the root of most Chinese statements about why the are doing something and what they are doing.  The recent announcements by Chinese trade officials that they are imposing tariffs on $3.7 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products ostensibly because Canada has imposed 100% tariffs on EVs made in China, is a case in point. In doing so they conveniently ignore the fact that over a decade they have subsidized an industry with the intent to essentially dominate a sector and undercut competition with lower costs. "Starting in 2009, the country began handing out financial subsidies to EV companies for producing buses, taxis, or cars for individual consumers. That year, fewer than 500 EVs were sold in China. But more money meant companies could keep spending to improve their models. It also meant consumers could spend less to get an ...